High complexity, high ambiguity, slow diffusion

I often have trouble explaining students and clients what exactly can be understood as product complexity and why this can be important for innovation.

Today I found a great example: Google Wave
http://www.news.com.au/technology/google-shuts-down-confusing-wave/story-e6frfro0-1225901471683

Since I first tried it I thought "what is this?". I couldn't grasp the concept of Wave, it seemed like a complicated all-in-one communication portal. But I couldn't see the point. I must have used it ten times, and I never got the point. Now I don't feel so bad: it seems that most people didn't get it either.

Google Wave is, I think, is a good example of a product of high compatibility, as it didn't really add anything new, it merely mixed everything together. It is also an example of high complexity perhaps not so much in its use, it did seem simple and usable enough (although I'll never be sure if I was missing something). And it is equally and example of high ambiguity.

Now, according to theory, Google Wave would have succeeded eventually, assuming that it did add any value to the web. Perhaps it did, in which case it was 'only' a matter of time. Which is obviously expensive to maintain. Or, possibly, it was just a simple case of putting "the cart before the horse", where the geeks at Google thought "this is sooo cool!" while the 'rest of us' said "hmm, don't think so".

In the end, Google Wave is also an example of something every much over-looked in innovation: great companies also fail. Your next product ain't necessarily going to be a success, even if your previous products have been awesome. Not that I wish for it, but I do expect to see an Apple blunder sooner rather than later.