Research blog by Ricardo Sosa on innovation and design, societal factors of creativity, diffusion of innovations, creative destruction, resistance to change, systemic creativity, sustainability, etc...

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Indirect consequences of intervening a system

This is a NYT article reporting on how H. Mubarak's decision of killing all the pigs of Egypt back in May, has caused a huge problem with the organic garbage in Cairo.

Not strictly an innovation issue, but this case highlights two fundamental aspects that are useful to understand innovation:
  1. Don't mess with complex systems unless you are aware of all the interactions. Here the garbage was used by the zabaleen community to feed their pigs, which were in turn a food source for them. With the pigs slaughtered, the Muslim majority probably thought they scored over the Christian minority, but in doing so they ended the equilibrium in the system.
  2. Decisions have indirect and unintended consequences. Although one can tell from this case that the zabaleen community did warn the government, so this wouldn't count as "unintended", but certainly using the swine flu as an excuse to kill all the pigs, caused the indirect result of the garbage problem. My guess is that it also upset the zabaleen's economy, and perhaps the political cost of the entire episode will be huge.

1 comment:

Ricardo Sosa said...

A classic example of 'unintended and disastrous consequences' is Australia's fragile equilibrium. A brief introduction here.